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QPR vs Preston — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Preston
Preston
S. Sinclair 60' (pen)
D. Johnson 24' (pen)
10/21/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR47%
×Draw26%
Preston27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.47
Preston
1.06

QPR creates 39% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Preston
0.99

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Preston
1.62

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

QPR or draw
73%
QPR or Preston
74%
Draw or Preston
53%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
23%
Preston wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
77%
QPR 2+ goals
43%
QPR 3+ goals
18%
Preston 1+ goals
65%
Preston 2+ goals
29%
Preston 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
63%
Preston (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Preston attack 0.99 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

QPR scores more
47%
level
26%
Preston scores more
27%

QPR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
S. SinclairPrestonPreston · M
7.5

Match Events

15'
Ryan Ledson
24'
D. JohnsonPenalty
57'
A. Adomah← D. Ball
60'
S. SinclairPenalty
71'
C. Willock← I. Chair
73'
T. Barkhuizen← D. Johnson
84'
S. Maguire← E. Riis
90+1'
J. Stockley← S. Sinclair

Possession

57%QPR

Shots

6QPR

Pass accuracy

54%QPR

Statistics

QPRPreston
Overview
57%Possession43%
6Total Shots8
2Corners2
14Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots8
0On Target3
5Off Target5
1Blocked0
1Inside Box4
5Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
500Total Passes380
390Accurate Passes254
78%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Championship: QPR 0–2 Preston

Preston beat QPR 2-0 in Championship on October 21, 2020.

Goals: D. Johnson (24' pen), S. Sinclair (60' pen).

QPR controlled possession (57%) and registered 6 shots to 8.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.