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QPR vs Millwall — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Millwall
Millwall
C. Martin 82'
O. Burke 78'
D. Watmore 31'
2/11/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 31Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR41%
×Draw27%
Millwall32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.31
Millwall
1.12

QPR creates 17% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 62 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Millwall
1.12

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Millwall
1.32

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
68%
QPR or Millwall
73%
Draw or Millwall
59%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
19%
Millwall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
73%
QPR 2+ goals
38%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
Millwall 1+ goals
67%
Millwall 2+ goals
31%
Millwall 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
56%
Millwall (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Millwall attack 1.12 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

QPR scores more
41%
level
27%
Millwall scores more
32%

QPR at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. FieldQPRQPR · M
7.3

Match Events

31'
D. Watmore↳ Z. Flemming
64'
C. Martin← S. Johansen
68'
Sinclair Armstrong
68'
O. Burke← D. Watmore
69'
C. Willock← S. Armstrong
76'
A. Adomah← C. Willock
78'
O. Burke
80'
George Honeyman
82'
C. Martin↳ I. Chair
85'
J. Shackleton← Z. Flemming
85'
A. Voglsammer← T. Bradshaw
90+2'
R. Leonard← G. Honeyman

Possession

66%QPR

Shots

10QPR

Pass accuracy

60%QPR

Statistics

QPRMillwall
Overview
66%Possession34%
10Total Shots11
4Corners3
8Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots11
2On Target5
8Off Target4
0Blocked2
6Inside Box11
4Outside Box0
Passing
66%Possession34%
467Total Passes247
350Accurate Passes124
75%Pass Accuracy50%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

QPR 1 – 2 Millwall

Millwall beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on February 11, 2023.

Goals: D. Watmore (31'), O. Burke (78'), C. Martin (82').

QPR controlled possession (66%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.