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QPR vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
L. Amos 81'
11/24/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

QPR44%
×Draw27%
Huddersfield30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.40
Huddersfield
1.10

QPR creates 27% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 10 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Huddersfield
1.08

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Huddersfield
1.49

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

QPR or draw
70%
QPR or Huddersfield
73%
Draw or Huddersfield
56%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
21%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
75%
QPR 2+ goals
41%
QPR 3+ goals
17%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
67%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
30%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
60%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.49 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Huddersfield attack 1.08 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

QPR scores more
44%
level
27%
Huddersfield scores more
30%

QPR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. DiengQPRQPR · G
8.2

Match Events

10'
Josh Koroma
27'
Ilias Chair
56'
Andre Dozzell
63'
Lewis O'Brien
63'
F. Campbell← D. Ward
71'
L. Amos← A. Dozzell
71'
S. Thomas← J. Koroma
81'
L. Amos↳ C. Willock
82'
A. Odubeko← O. Turton
83'
S. Field← C. Austin
90+3'
D. Ball← S. Johansen

Possession

59%QPR

Shots

22QPR

Pass accuracy

54%QPR

Statistics

QPRHuddersfield
Overview
59%Possession41%
22Total Shots10
9Corners4
12Fouls7
Shots
22Total Shots10
5On Target5
10Off Target2
7Blocked3
15Inside Box6
7Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
555Total Passes396
464Accurate Passes289
84%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
5Offsides2

Championship: QPR 1–0 Huddersfield

QPR beat Huddersfield 1-0 in Championship on November 24, 2021.

Goals: L. Amos (81').

QPR controlled possession (59%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.