QPR 0–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats | Championship

QPR

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield

J. Bacuna 55'

3/13/2021

Championship · Round 36Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

QPR45%

×Draw27%

Huddersfield28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

QPR

1.40

Huddersfield

1.04

QPR creates 35% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 12 away

1.31

creates per match

0.96

1.12

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

QPR

1.31

Huddersfield

0.96

allows per match

QPR

1.12

Huddersfield

1.49

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

QPR+0.09on par

Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw

72%

QPR or Huddersfield

73%

Draw or Huddersfield

55%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

22%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

75%

QPR 2+ goals

41%

QPR 3+ goals

17%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

65%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

28%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

62%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

QPR scores more

45%

level

27%

Huddersfield scores more

28%

QPR at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Sarr

Huddersfield · D

7.7

Match Events

52'

D. Holmes← I. Mbenza

52'

D. Duhaney← A. Rowe

55'

J. Bacuna↳ Pipa Ávila

67'

Y. Sanogo← F. Campbell

76'

76'

86'

88'

88'

90+3'

R. Stearman← J. Bacuna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRHuddersfield

Overview

66%Possession34%

4Total Shots13

5Corners7

7Fouls9

Shots

4Total Shots13

2On Target3

1Off Target10

1Blocked0

2Inside Box7

2Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

596Total Passes296

492Accurate Passes203

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1