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QPR vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
G. Hall 83'
K. Ahearne-Grant 49' (pen)
8/10/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

QPR45%
×Draw27%
Huddersfield28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.40
Huddersfield
1.04

QPR creates 35% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 12 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Huddersfield
0.96

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Huddersfield
1.49

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
72%
QPR or Huddersfield
73%
Draw or Huddersfield
55%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
22%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
75%
QPR 2+ goals
41%
QPR 3+ goals
17%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
65%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
28%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
62%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

QPR scores more
45%
level
27%
Huddersfield scores more
28%

QPR at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. EzeQPRQPR · M
7.7

Match Events

2'
Adama Diakhaby
43'
Juninho Bacuna
46'
E. Kachunga← J. Bacuna
48'
Yoann Barbet
49'
K. Ahearne-GrantPenalty
55'
I. Chair← J. Scowen
69'
Lewis O'Brien
71'
T. Kane← Àngel Rangel
76'
C. Quaner← A. Diakhaby
79'
Collin Quaner
82'
N. Wells← L. Amos
83'
G. Hall↳ R. Manning
90'
Bright Osayi-Samuel
90'
Karlan Grant
90+5'
J. Stankovič← A. Pritchard

Possession

63%QPR

Shots

17QPR

Pass accuracy

54%QPR

Statistics

QPRHuddersfield
Overview
63%Possession37%
17Total Shots6
7Corners0
14Fouls20
Shots
17Total Shots6
5On Target4
5Off Target1
7Blocked1
9Inside Box2
8Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
478Total Passes287
389Accurate Passes200
81%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls20
2Yellow Cards5
3Offsides2

Championship: QPR 1–1 Huddersfield

QPR and Huddersfield drew 1-1 in Championship on August 10, 2019.

Goals: K. Ahearne-Grant (49' pen), G. Hall (83').

QPR controlled possession (63%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.