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QPR vs Coventry — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Coventry
Coventry
V. Gyökeres 88', 10'
G. Hamer 86'
4/15/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

QPR36%
×Draw27%
Coventry37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.27
Coventry
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 55 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Coventry
1.47

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Coventry
1.23

finishing

QPR+0.08on par
Coventry+0.06on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

QPR or draw
63%
QPR or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
64%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
16%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
72%
QPR 2+ goals
36%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
72%
Coventry 2+ goals
37%
Coventry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
49%
Coventry (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.47 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

QPR scores more
36%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
37%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
G. HamerCoventryCoventry · M
8.5

Match Events

10'
V. Gyökeres↳ G. Hamer
34'
Kyle McFadzean
45+3'
Josh Eccles
52'
Callum Doyle
54'
Leon Balogun
65'
T. Richards← I. Chair
72'
J. Lowe← C. Martin
72'
C. Willock← A. Adomah
73'
E. Laird← J. Dunne
76'
F. Dabo← B. Norton-Cuffy
77'
J. Wilson-Esbrand← J. Bidwell
77'
T. Walker← M. Godden
82'
S. Johansen← A. Dozzell
86'
G. Hamer
88'
V. Gyökeres↳ G. Hamer
90'
S. Maguire← J. Eccles

Possession

47%QPR

Shots

6QPR

Pass accuracy

49%QPR

Statistics

QPRCoventry
Overview
47%Possession53%
6Total Shots14
5Corners2
9Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots14
2On Target5
3Off Target4
1Blocked5
2Inside Box11
4Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
300Total Passes355
195Accurate Passes246
65%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Match Recap: QPR vs Coventry

Coventry beat QPR 3-0 in Championship on April 15, 2023.

Goals: V. Gyökeres (10', 88'), G. Hamer (86').

Coventry controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.