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QPR vs Coventry — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
Y. Barbet 76'
L. Dykes 68'
8/28/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR36%
×Draw27%
Coventry37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.27
Coventry
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Coventry
1.44

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Coventry
1.22

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

QPR or draw
63%
QPR or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
64%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
16%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
72%
QPR 2+ goals
36%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
72%
Coventry 2+ goals
37%
Coventry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
50%
Coventry (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.44 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

QPR scores more
36%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
37%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
Y. BarbetQPRQPR · M
8.3

Match Events

35'
Stefan Johansen
61'
M. Godden← M. Waghorn
61'
T. Walker← V. Gyökeres
67'
L. Dykes← I. Chair
68'
L. Dykes↳ D. Ball
71'
Jake Clarke-Salter
72'
J. Allen← J. Clarke-Salter
76'
Y. Barbet
77'
A. Dozzell← C. Austin
85'
O. Kakay← S. McCallum

Possession

61%QPR

Shots

13QPR

Pass accuracy

53%QPR

Statistics

QPRCoventry
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots15
5Corners11
5Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots15
5On Target4
2Off Target5
6Blocked6
6Inside Box9
7Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
537Total Passes326
466Accurate Passes253
87%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Championship: QPR 2–0 Coventry

QPR beat Coventry 2-0 in Championship on August 28, 2021.

Goals: L. Dykes (68'), Y. Barbet (76').

QPR controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.