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QPR vs Coventry — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
I. Chair 68'
M. Rose 22' (OG)
C. Willock 2'
4/2/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR36%
×Draw27%
Coventry37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.27
Coventry
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Coventry
1.44

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Coventry
1.22

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

QPR or draw
63%
QPR or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
64%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
16%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
72%
QPR 2+ goals
36%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
72%
Coventry 2+ goals
37%
Coventry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
50%
Coventry (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.44 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

QPR scores more
36%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
37%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
S. JohansenQPRQPR · M
8.2

Match Events

2'
C. Willock↳ L. Wallace
22'
M. RoseOwn goal
58'
V. Gyökeres← J. Shipley
58'
T. Walker← M. Godden
58'
C. O'Hare← J. Allen
66'
L. Dykes← C. Austin
66'
G. Thomas← C. Willock
66'
J. Pask← M. Rose
68'
I. Chair↳ S. Johansen
76'
A. Adomah← I. Chair
77'
J. Eccles← G. Hamer
83'
C. Kelman← L. Wallace
83'
D. Ball← S. Johansen
85'
Dominic Ball

Possession

56%QPR

Shots

17QPR

Pass accuracy

52%QPR

Statistics

QPRCoventry
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots10
6Corners6
13Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots10
10On Target3
2Off Target5
5Blocked2
14Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
549Total Passes417
470Accurate Passes333
86%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
13Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: QPR vs Coventry

QPR beat Coventry 3-0 in Championship on April 2, 2021.

Goals: C. Willock (2'), M. Rose (22' o.g.), I. Chair (68').

QPR controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.