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QPR vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Blackburn
Blackburn
T. Iroegbunam 24'
S. Gallagher 60', 14'
S. Szmodics 45+2'
2/25/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw27%
Blackburn29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.35
Blackburn
1.06

QPR creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 59 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

QPR+0.08on par
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
71%
QPR or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Blackburn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
65%
Blackburn 2+ goals
29%
Blackburn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
60%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Blackburn attack 1.01 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
29%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
S. GallagherBlackburnBlackburn · F
8.0

Match Events

14'
S. Gallagher
24'
T. Iroegbunam
35'
A. Dozzell← I. Chair
37'
Stefan Johansen
45+2'
S. Szmodics↳ L. Travis
57'
Osman Kakay
59'
Samuel Field
60'
S. Gallagher↳ J. Rankin-Costello
66'
Jamal Lowe
69'
R. Hedges← S. Szmodics
75'
A. Adomah← C. Martin
80'
T. Morton← T. Dolan
88'
T. Richards← T. Iroegbunam
90+5'
A. Phillips← J. Buckley

Possession

54%QPR

Shots

11QPR

Pass accuracy

51%QPR

Statistics

QPRBlackburn
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots9
7Corners1
12Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots9
2On Target5
4Off Target2
5Blocked2
5Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
390Total Passes343
280Accurate Passes233
72%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls10
4Yellow Cards0
2Offsides4

QPR 1 – 3 Blackburn

Blackburn beat QPR 3-1 in Championship on February 25, 2023.

Goals: S. Gallagher (14', 60'), T. Iroegbunam (24'), S. Szmodics (45+2').

QPR controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.