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QPR vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
Y. Barbet 54'
2/6/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw27%
Blackburn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.34
Blackburn
1.06

QPR creates 26% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
70%
QPR or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Blackburn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
65%
Blackburn 2+ goals
29%
Blackburn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
59%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Blackburn attack 1.01 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
30%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
T. DiengQPRQPR · G
8.3

Match Events

5'
Charlie Austin
9'
Jacob Davenport
20'
Dominic Ball
54'
Y. Barbet
60'
Sam Gallagher
62'
L. Holtby← J. Davenport
62'
B. Dack← J. Rothwell
62'
T. Harwood-Bellis← R. Nyambe
74'
F. Bettache← S. Johansen
74'
M. Bonne← C. Austin
74'
T. Dolan← S. Gallagher
78'
B. Brereton← L. Holtby
83'
A. Adomah← L. Dykes
90'
Albert Adomah

Possession

47%QPR

Shots

12QPR

Pass accuracy

48%QPR

Statistics

QPRBlackburn
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Total Shots15
5Corners7
17Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots15
2On Target7
5Off Target6
5Blocked2
7Inside Box6
5Outside Box9
Passing
47%Possession53%
348Total Passes386
219Accurate Passes268
63%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
7Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

QPR 1 – 0 Blackburn

QPR beat Blackburn 1-0 in Championship on February 6, 2021.

Goals: Y. Barbet (54').

Blackburn controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.