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QPR vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
J. Hugill 77'
B. Osayi-Samuel 60'
E. Eze 49'
N. Wells 30'
A. Armstrong 86'
B. Dack 57' (pen)
10/5/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw27%
Blackburn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.34
Blackburn
1.06

QPR creates 26% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
70%
QPR or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Blackburn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
65%
Blackburn 2+ goals
29%
Blackburn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
59%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Blackburn attack 1.01 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
30%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
B. Osayi-SamuelQPRQPR · M
7.5

Match Events

6'
Corry Evans
17'
A. Bell← G. Cunningham
30'
N. Wells↳ B. Osayi-Samuel
45'
Darragh Lenihan
46'
L. Holtby← D. Graham
49'
E. Eze
56'
Yoann Barbet
57'
B. DackPenalty
58'
Amari Bell
60'
B. Osayi-Samuel↳ J. Scowen
61'
J. Hugill← B. Osayi-Samuel
65'
Geoff Cameron
67'
T. Adarabioyo← D. Lenihan
72'
M. Pugh← I. Chair
77'
J. Hugill↳ R. Manning
82'
J. Mlakar← N. Wells
86'
A. Armstrong↳ E. Bennett
90'
Jordan Hugill
90'
Ryan Manning
90'
Derrick Williams

Possession

43%QPR

Shots

10QPR

Pass accuracy

50%QPR

Statistics

QPRBlackburn
Overview
43%Possession57%
10Total Shots8
4Corners4
14Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots8
5On Target2
4Off Target1
1Blocked5
8Inside Box3
2Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
410Total Passes522
330Accurate Passes422
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls7
4Yellow Cards4
4Offsides4

Match Recap: QPR vs Blackburn

QPR beat Blackburn 4-2 in Championship on October 5, 2019.

Goals: N. Wells (30'), E. Eze (49'), B. Dack (57' pen), B. Osayi-Samuel (60'), J. Hugill (77'), A. Armstrong (86').

Blackburn controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.