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QPR vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Blackburn
Blackburn
M. Smith 90+2'
B. Dack 46'
D. Graham 22' (pen)
4/19/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw27%
Blackburn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.34
Blackburn
1.06

QPR creates 26% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
70%
QPR or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Blackburn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
65%
Blackburn 2+ goals
29%
Blackburn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
59%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Blackburn attack 1.01 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
30%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
D. WilliamsBlackburnBlackburn · D
7.5

Match Events

22'
D. GrahamPenalty
31'
Bradley Dack
46'
B. Dack
52'
N. Wells← J. Cousins
59'
Massimo Luongo
64'
M. Smith← T. Hemed
65'
J. Rodwell← C. Evans
68'
J. Nuttall← D. Graham
74'
E. Eze← P. Wszołek
81'
Bright Osayi-Samuel
83'
Jack Rodwell
86'
B. Brereton← A. Armstrong
90'
Nahki Wells
90'
Jayson Leutwiler
90+2'
M. Smith↳ L. Freeman

Possession

50%QPR

Shots

19QPR

Pass accuracy

52%QPR

Statistics

QPRBlackburn
Overview
50%Possession50%
19Total Shots12
8Corners4
14Fouls8
Shots
19Total Shots12
3On Target5
10Off Target5
6Blocked2
12Inside Box12
7Outside Box0
Passing
50%Possession50%
326Total Passes327
213Accurate Passes198
65%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls8
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides3

QPR 1 – 2 Blackburn

Blackburn beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on April 19, 2019.

Goals: D. Graham (22' pen), B. Dack (46'), M. Smith (90+2').

QPR controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.