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Qiziriq vs Yaypan — Pro League A 2026

Qiziriq
Qiziriq
Preview
13:00
Yaypan
Yaypan
8/15/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 15
43%
Yaypan
model favours
33%24%43%
1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qiziriq33%
×Draw24%
Yaypan43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qiziriq
1.38
Yaypan
1.63

Yaypan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Qiziriq
0.50
Yaypan
1.25

allows per match

Qiziriq
2.00
Yaypan
2.25

finishing

Qiziriq+0.00on par
Yaypan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qiziriq ↓

Yaypan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Qiziriq or draw
57%
Qiziriq or Yaypan
76%
Draw or Yaypan
67%

Winning margin

Qiziriq wins by 2+
15%
Yaypan wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Qiziriq 1+ goals
75%
Qiziriq 2+ goals
40%
Qiziriq 3+ goals
16%
Yaypan 1+ goals
80%
Yaypan 2+ goals
48%
Yaypan 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Qiziriq (draw refunded)
43%
Yaypan (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qiziriq at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Yaypan away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qiziriq attack 0.50 + Yaypan defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Yaypan attack 1.25 + Qiziriq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Qiziriq scores more
33%
level
24%
Yaypan scores more
43%

Yaypan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yaypan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Qiziriq
LLLLW
Yaypan
LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qiziriq face Yaypan (Pro League A)

Pro League A returns with Qiziriq hosting Yaypan. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.