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Qiziriq vs Gazalkent — Pro League A 2026

Qiziriq
Qiziriq
Preview
13:00
Gazalkent
Gazalkent
9/22/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 20
64%
Gazalkent
model favours
15%21%64%
0–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qiziriq15%
×Draw21%
Gazalkent64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qiziriq
0.85
Gazalkent
2.00

Gazalkent creates 135% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Qiziriq
0.50
Gazalkent
2.00

allows per match

Qiziriq
2.00
Gazalkent
1.20

finishing

Qiziriq+0.00on par
Gazalkent+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qiziriq ↓

Gazalkent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Qiziriq or draw
36%
Qiziriq or Gazalkent
79%
Draw or Gazalkent
85%

Winning margin

Qiziriq wins by 2+
5%
Gazalkent wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Qiziriq 1+ goals
57%
Qiziriq 2+ goals
21%
Qiziriq 3+ goals
5%
Gazalkent 1+ goals
86%
Gazalkent 2+ goals
59%
Gazalkent 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Qiziriq (draw refunded)
19%
Gazalkent (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qiziriq at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Gazalkent away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qiziriq attack 0.50 + Gazalkent defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Gazalkent attack 2.00 + Qiziriq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Qiziriq scores more
15%
level
21%
Gazalkent scores more
64%

Gazalkent at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gazalkent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Qiziriq
LLLLW
Gazalkent
WWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qiziriq vs Gazalkent — Match Preview

Qiziriq face Gazalkent on September 22, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.