Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Qizilqum vs Sogdiana — Super League 2026

Qizilqum
Qizilqum
FT
1 – 1
Sogdiana
Sogdiana
6/15/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi (Navoiy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Qizilqum39%
×Draw27%
Sogdiana34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qizilqum
1.29
Sogdiana
1.17

Qizilqum creates 10% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 102 away

creates per match

Qizilqum
1.18
Sogdiana
1.10

allows per match

Qizilqum
1.23
Sogdiana
1.40

finishing

Qizilqum+0.00on par
Sogdiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qizilqum ↓

Sogdiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Qizilqum or draw
66%
Qizilqum or Sogdiana
73%
Draw or Sogdiana
61%

Winning margin

Qizilqum wins by 2+
18%
Sogdiana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Qizilqum 1+ goals
72%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
37%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
14%
Sogdiana 1+ goals
69%
Sogdiana 2+ goals
33%
Sogdiana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Qizilqum (draw refunded)
54%
Sogdiana (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qizilqum at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

Sogdiana away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qizilqum attack 1.18 + Sogdiana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sogdiana attack 1.10 + Qizilqum defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Qizilqum scores more
39%
level
27%
Sogdiana scores more
34%

Qizilqum at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Qizilqum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Qizilqum 1–1 Sogdiana

Qizilqum and Sogdiana drew 1-1 in Super League on June 15, 2019.

The match was played at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi (Navoiy).