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Qizilqum vs Nasaf — Super League 2026

Qizilqum
Qizilqum
Preview
15:00
Nasaf
Nasaf
8/26/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi
Big match
42%
Nasaf
model favours
30%28%42%

Nasaf have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Qizilqum30%
×Draw28%
Nasaf42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qizilqum
1.03
Nasaf
1.27

Nasaf creates 23% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 95 away

creates per match

Qizilqum
1.18
Nasaf
1.31

allows per match

Qizilqum
1.23
Nasaf
0.88

finishing

Qizilqum+0.00on par
Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qizilqum ↓

Nasaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Qizilqum or draw
58%
Qizilqum or Nasaf
72%
Draw or Nasaf
70%

Winning margin

Qizilqum wins by 2+
11%
Nasaf wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Qizilqum 1+ goals
64%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
28%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
9%
Nasaf 1+ goals
72%
Nasaf 2+ goals
36%
Nasaf 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Qizilqum (draw refunded)
42%
Nasaf (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qizilqum at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qizilqum attack 1.18 + Nasaf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nasaf attack 1.31 + Qizilqum defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qizilqum scores more
30%
level
28%
Nasaf scores more
42%

Nasaf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Qizilqum
DLLDW
Nasaf
DWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qizilqum vs Nasaf — Match Preview

Qizilqum face Nasaf on August 26, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Qizilqum host Nasaf at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.