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Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall — League One 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
4/29/2018League OneLeague One · Round 8GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai42%
×Draw24%
Wuhan Zall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.57
Wuhan Zall
1.40

Qingdao Huanghai creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.15
Wuhan Zall
1.73

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Wuhan Zall
1.00

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Wuhan Zall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
66%
Qingdao Huanghai or Wuhan Zall
76%
Draw or Wuhan Zall
58%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
21%
Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
79%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
46%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
21%
Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
75%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
41%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
55%
Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Wuhan Zall attack 1.73 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
42%
level
24%
Wuhan Zall scores more
34%

Qingdao Huanghai at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Wuhan Zall

Qingdao Huanghai and Wuhan Zall drew 1-1 in League One on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao).