Qashqai Shiraz 1–1 Arman Gohar: Result & Stats

Qashqai Shiraz

FT

1 – 1

Arman Gohar

8/2/2020

Azadegan League · Round 32Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz44%

×Draw30%

Arman Gohar26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qashqai ShirazExpected goals in this matchArman Gohar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.85

Qashqai Shiraz

1.19

Arman Gohar

0.85

Qashqai Shiraz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

0.93

creates per match

0.90

0.81

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz

0.93

Arman Gohar

0.90

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz

0.81

Arman Gohar

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Arman Gohar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw

74%

Qashqai Shiraz or Arman Gohar

70%

Draw or Arman Gohar

56%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+

19%

Arman Gohar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals

70%

Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals

33%

Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals

12%

Arman Gohar 1+ goals

57%

Arman Gohar 2+ goals

21%

Arman Gohar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)

63%

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more

44%

level

30%

Arman Gohar scores more

26%

Qashqai Shiraz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff