Qarabag 4–1 İnter Bakı: Result & Stats

Qarabag

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

İnter Bakı

M. Muarem 87'

Reynaldo 85', 69', 12'

B. Tskhadadze 74'

5/7/2014

Premyer Liqa · Round 34Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qarabag63%

×Draw24%

İnter Bakı13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QarabagExpected goals in this matchİnter Bakı

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.61

Qarabag

1.67

İnter Bakı

0.61

Qarabag creates 174% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

0.55

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Qarabag

2.00

İnter Bakı

0.67

allows per match

Qarabag

0.55

İnter Bakı

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qarabag+0.00on par

İnter Bakı+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qarabag ↓

İnter Bakı →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Qarabag or draw

87%

Qarabag or İnter Bakı

76%

Draw or İnter Bakı

37%

Winning margin

Qarabag wins by 2+

36%

İnter Bakı wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Qarabag 1+ goals

81%

Qarabag 2+ goals

50%

Qarabag 3+ goals

23%

İnter Bakı 1+ goals

46%

İnter Bakı 2+ goals

13%

İnter Bakı 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Qarabag (draw refunded)

83%

İnter Bakı (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qarabag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

İnter Bakı away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qarabag attack 2.00 + İnter Bakı defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

İnter Bakı attack 0.67 + Qarabag defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Qarabag scores more

63%

level

24%

İnter Bakı scores more

13%

Qarabag at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Reynaldo

46'

M. Muarem← N. Gelashvili

59'

A. Hüseynov← V. Cavadov

68'

A. Iashvili← B. Abdoulaye

69'

Reynaldo

74'

B. Tskhadadze

80'

N. Yusifov← Chumbinho

82'

S. Zärgärov← A. Mämmädov

85'

Reynaldo

87'

M. Muarem

88'

V. Nadirov← L. George

Qarabag

İnter

25

Ağayev

3

Salukvadz

20

▼

33

15

88

11

▼

Mämmädov

8

Álvaro

47

Abatsiyev

70

▼

Cavadov

28

⚽

13

14

5

2

55

25

70

▼

Chumbinho

9

⚽3

Reynaldo

20

Richard

41

▼

George

99

▼

Gelashvil

46'▲M. Muarem←▼N. Gelashvili

80'▲N. Yusifov←▼Chumbinho

88'▲V. Nadirov←▼L. George

Qarabag substitutes

10Muarem7Yusifov17Nadirov1Väliyev6Ähmädov18Qurbanov24Teli

59'▲A. Hüseynov←▼V. Cavadov

68'▲A. Iashvili←▼B. Abdoulaye

82'▲S. Zärgärov←▼A. Mämmädov

İnter Bakı substitutes

30Hüseynov9Iashvili6Zärgärov1Lomaia5Georgievski27Madrigal91Diniyev