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Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Urartu — Premier League 2019

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
4/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan41%
×Draw26%
FC Urartu33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik Yerevan
1.39
FC Urartu
1.23

Pyunik Yerevan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
FC Urartu
1.49

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan
0.96
FC Urartu
1.01

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw
67%
Pyunik Yerevan or FC Urartu
74%
Draw or FC Urartu
59%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
19%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
75%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
40%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
16%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
71%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
35%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
55%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.96 · 104 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.77 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Urartu attack 1.49 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more
41%
level
26%
FC Urartu scores more
33%

Pyunik Yerevan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Urartu

Pyunik Yerevan beat FC Urartu 5-0 in Premier League on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.