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Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Noah — Premier League 2019

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
Preview
16:00
FC Noah
FC Noah
3/11/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Junior Sport Stadium
Big match
44%
Pyunik Yerevan
model favours
44%26%30%

Pyunik Yerevan are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan44%
×Draw26%
FC Noah30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik Yerevan
1.48
FC Noah
1.17

Pyunik Yerevan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
FC Noah
1.39

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan
0.96
FC Noah
1.20

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw
70%
Pyunik Yerevan or FC Noah
74%
Draw or FC Noah
56%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
22%
FC Noah wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
77%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
43%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
19%
FC Noah 1+ goals
69%
FC Noah 2+ goals
33%
FC Noah 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
60%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.96 · 104 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.77 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Noah attack 1.39 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more
44%
level
26%
FC Noah scores more
30%

Pyunik Yerevan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Pyunik Yerevan score first in only 17% of matches
  • FC Noah score first in only 26% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Pyunik Yerevan 3 vs FC Noah 2
  • Pyunik Yerevan win just 43% against the top half (vs 73% against the bottom)
  • FC Noah win just 36% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)
  • 28% of FC Noah’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Yerevan
WWLDW
Noah
DDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Noah — Match Preview

Pyunik Yerevan face FC Noah on March 11, 2027 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Pyunik Yerevan host FC Noah at Junior Sport Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.