Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Noah — Premier League 2019

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
8/29/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan44%
×Draw26%
FC Noah30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik Yerevan
1.48
FC Noah
1.17

Pyunik Yerevan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
FC Noah
1.39

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan
0.96
FC Noah
1.20

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw
70%
Pyunik Yerevan or FC Noah
74%
Draw or FC Noah
56%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
22%
FC Noah wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
77%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
43%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
19%
FC Noah 1+ goals
69%
FC Noah 2+ goals
33%
FC Noah 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
60%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.96 · 104 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.77 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Noah attack 1.39 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more
44%
level
26%
FC Noah scores more
30%

Pyunik Yerevan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pyunik Yerevan 3–0 FC Noah

Pyunik Yerevan beat FC Noah 3-0 in Premier League on August 29, 2022.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht in Yerevan.