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Seongnam FC vs Sangju Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Seongnam FC
Seongnam FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
6/20/2020K League 1K League 1 · Round 8Tancheon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Seongnam FC31%
×Draw26%
Sangju Sangmu FC43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seongnam FC
1.16
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.41

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 101 away

creates per match

Seongnam FC
0.96
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.24

allows per match

Seongnam FC
1.58
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.35

finishing

Seongnam FC+0.00on par
Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seongnam FC ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Seongnam FC or draw
57%
Seongnam FC or Sangju Sangmu FC
74%
Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC
69%

Winning margin

Seongnam FC wins by 2+
13%
Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Seongnam FC 1+ goals
69%
Seongnam FC 2+ goals
32%
Seongnam FC 3+ goals
11%
Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
76%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
41%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Seongnam FC (draw refunded)
42%
Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seongnam FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seongnam FC attack 0.96 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.24 + Seongnam FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Seongnam FC scores more
31%
level
26%
Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
43%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Seongnam FC 0–1 Sangju Sangmu FC

Sangju Sangmu FC beat Seongnam FC 1-0 in K League 1 on June 20, 2020.

The match was played at Tancheon Sports Complex in Seongnam.