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Pyramids FC vs Ghazl El Mehalla — Premier League 2018

Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ghazl El Mehalla
Ghazl El Mehalla
8/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3430 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Pyramids FC58%
×Draw25%
Ghazl El Mehalla17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyramids FC
1.59
Ghazl El Mehalla
0.74

Pyramids FC creates 115% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 79 away

creates per match

Pyramids FC
1.83
Ghazl El Mehalla
0.72

allows per match

Pyramids FC
0.77
Ghazl El Mehalla
1.35

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par
Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Ghazl El Mehalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw
83%
Pyramids FC or Ghazl El Mehalla
75%
Draw or Ghazl El Mehalla
42%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+
31%
Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals
80%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
47%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
21%
Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals
52%
Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals
17%
Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
77%
Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 126 matches

Ghazl El Mehalla away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.83 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.72 + Pyramids FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pyramids FC scores more
58%
level
25%
Ghazl El Mehalla scores more
17%

Pyramids FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pyramids FC 6–0 Ghazl El Mehalla

Pyramids FC beat Ghazl El Mehalla 6-0 in Premier League on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at 30 June Air Defence Stadium in Cairo.