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Pyramids FC vs Enppi — League Cup 2021

Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Enppi
Enppiadvanced
3/26/2023League CupLeague Cup · Round of 1630 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pyramids FC26%
×Draw24%
Enppi51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyramids FC
1.17
Enppi
1.75

Enppi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

creates per match

Pyramids FC
1.33
Enppi
1.06

allows per match

Pyramids FC
2.44
Enppi
1.00

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par
Enppi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Enppi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw
49%
Pyramids FC or Enppi
76%
Draw or Enppi
74%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+
10%
Enppi wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals
69%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
33%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
11%
Enppi 1+ goals
83%
Enppi 2+ goals
52%
Enppi 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
33%
Enppi (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Enppi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.33 + Enppi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Enppi attack 1.06 + Pyramids FC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pyramids FC scores more
26%
level
24%
Enppi scores more
51%

Enppi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Enppi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Pyramids FC 1–1 Enppi

Pyramids FC and Enppi drew 1-1 in League Cup on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at 30 June Air Defence Stadium in Cairo.