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Pyramids FC vs El Gouna FC — Premier League 2018

Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
El Gouna FC
El Gouna FC
8/30/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3430 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Pyramids FC54%
×Draw26%
El Gouna FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyramids FC
1.54
El Gouna FC
0.84

Pyramids FC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 117 away

creates per match

Pyramids FC
1.83
El Gouna FC
0.91

allows per match

Pyramids FC
0.77
El Gouna FC
1.24

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par
El Gouna FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

El Gouna FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw
80%
Pyramids FC or El Gouna FC
74%
Draw or El Gouna FC
46%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+
28%
El Gouna FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals
79%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
45%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
20%
El Gouna FC 1+ goals
57%
El Gouna FC 2+ goals
21%
El Gouna FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
72%
El Gouna FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 126 matches

El Gouna FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.83 + El Gouna FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.54

El Gouna FC attack 0.91 + Pyramids FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pyramids FC scores more
54%
level
26%
El Gouna FC scores more
20%

Pyramids FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pyramids FC 1–3 El Gouna FC

El Gouna FC beat Pyramids FC 3-1 in Premier League on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at 30 June Air Defence Stadium in Cairo.