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Pyramids FC vs Ceramica Cleopatra — Premier League 2018

Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
4/27/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1630 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Pyramids FC50%
×Draw26%
Ceramica Cleopatra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyramids FC
1.50
Ceramica Cleopatra
0.95

Pyramids FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 93 away

creates per match

Pyramids FC
1.83
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.12

allows per match

Pyramids FC
0.77
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.16

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par
Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Ceramica Cleopatra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw
76%
Pyramids FC or Ceramica Cleopatra
74%
Draw or Ceramica Cleopatra
50%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+
25%
Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals
78%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
44%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
19%
Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
61%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
25%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
68%
Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 126 matches

Ceramica Cleopatra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.83 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.12 + Pyramids FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pyramids FC scores more
50%
level
26%
Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
24%

Pyramids FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pyramids FC 0–1 Ceramica Cleopatra

Ceramica Cleopatra beat Pyramids FC 1-0 in Premier League on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at 30 June Air Defence Stadium in Cairo.