Pyramids FC 0–1 AL Masry: Result & Stats

Pyramids FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AL Masry

1/20/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pyramids FC21%

×Draw23%

AL Masry56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyramids FCExpected goals in this matchAL Masry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.82

Pyramids FC

1.02

AL Masry

1.82

AL Masry creates 78% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.20

2.44

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Pyramids FC

1.33

AL Masry

1.20

allows per match

Pyramids FC

2.44

AL Masry

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

AL Masry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

AL Masry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw

44%

Pyramids FC or AL Masry

77%

Draw or AL Masry

79%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

8%

AL Masry wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

64%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

27%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

8%

AL Masry 1+ goals

84%

AL Masry 2+ goals

54%

AL Masry 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

27%

AL Masry (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

AL Masry away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.33 + AL Masry defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.02

AL Masry attack 1.20 + Pyramids FC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pyramids FC scores more

21%

level

23%

AL Masry scores more

56%

AL Masry at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AL Masry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff