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Pyramids FC vs Al Ittihad — League Cup 2021

Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
FT
1 – 2
Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad
1/12/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 130 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pyramids FC25%
×Draw25%
Al Ittihad50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyramids FC
1.06
Al Ittihad
1.61

Al Ittihad creates 52% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pyramids FC
1.33
Al Ittihad
0.78

allows per match

Pyramids FC
2.44
Al Ittihad
0.78

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par
Al Ittihad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Al Ittihad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw
50%
Pyramids FC or Al Ittihad
75%
Draw or Al Ittihad
75%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+
9%
Al Ittihad wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals
65%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
29%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
9%
Al Ittihad 1+ goals
80%
Al Ittihad 2+ goals
48%
Al Ittihad 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
33%
Al Ittihad (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Al Ittihad away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.33 + Al Ittihad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Al Ittihad attack 0.78 + Pyramids FC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pyramids FC scores more
25%
level
25%
Al Ittihad scores more
50%

Al Ittihad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyramids FC vs Al Ittihad

Al Ittihad beat Pyramids FC 2-1 in League Cup on January 12, 2022.

The match was played at 30 June Air Defence Stadium in Cairo.