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Pyeongchang United vs Pyeongtaek Citizen — K4 League 2026

Pyeongchang United
Pyeongchang United
Preview
05:00
Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
10/31/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 25
44%
Pyeongchang United
model favours
44%25%31%
1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pyeongchang United44%
×Draw25%
Pyeongtaek Citizen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongchang United
1.54
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.27

Pyeongchang United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pyeongchang United
1.25
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Pyeongchang United
1.38
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.83

finishing

Pyeongchang United+0.00on par
Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongchang United ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pyeongchang United or draw
69%
Pyeongchang United or Pyeongtaek Citizen
75%
Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen
56%

Winning margin

Pyeongchang United wins by 2+
22%
Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pyeongchang United 1+ goals
79%
Pyeongchang United 2+ goals
45%
Pyeongchang United 3+ goals
20%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
72%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
36%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pyeongchang United (draw refunded)
58%
Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongchang United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.17 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pyeongchang United scores more
44%
level
25%
Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
31%

Pyeongchang United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pyeongchang United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
United
LLDWW
Citizen
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pyeongchang United face Pyeongtaek Citizen (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Pyeongchang United hosting Pyeongtaek Citizen. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.