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Pyeongchang United vs Jecheon Citizen — K4 League 2026

Pyeongchang United
Pyeongchang United
Preview
08:00
Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
9/5/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 21
39%
Jecheon Citizen
model favours
33%28%39%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pyeongchang United33%
×Draw28%
Jecheon Citizen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongchang United
1.13
Jecheon Citizen
1.25

Jecheon Citizen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pyeongchang United
1.25
Jecheon Citizen
1.11

allows per match

Pyeongchang United
1.38
Jecheon Citizen
1.00

finishing

Pyeongchang United+0.00on par
Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongchang United ↓

Jecheon Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pyeongchang United or draw
61%
Pyeongchang United or Jecheon Citizen
72%
Draw or Jecheon Citizen
67%

Winning margin

Pyeongchang United wins by 2+
13%
Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pyeongchang United 1+ goals
68%
Pyeongchang United 2+ goals
31%
Pyeongchang United 3+ goals
11%
Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
71%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
36%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pyeongchang United (draw refunded)
46%
Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongchang United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Jecheon Citizen away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.11 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pyeongchang United scores more
33%
level
28%
Jecheon Citizen scores more
39%

Jecheon Citizen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jecheon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
United
LLDWW
Citizen
LLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pyeongchang United face Jecheon Citizen (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Pyeongchang United hosting Jecheon Citizen. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.