Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

PWD Bamenda vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
CANC
00:00
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
4/26/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

PWD Bamenda42%
×Draw30%
Stade Renard28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.17
Stade Renard
0.89

PWD Bamenda creates 31% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 96 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
72%
PWD Bamenda or Stade Renard
70%
Draw or Stade Renard
58%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
18%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
69%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
33%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
11%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
59%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
22%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
60%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
42%
level
30%
Stade Renard scores more
28%

PWD Bamenda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: PWD Bamenda host Stade Renard

April 26, 2020: PWD Bamenda take on Stade Renard in Elite One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.