PWD Bamenda 0–0 Fovu Club: Result & Stats

PWD Bamenda

FT

0 – 0

Fovu Club

5/26/2019

Elite One · Relegation Round - 3Middle Farm Stadium (Limbé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

PWD Bamenda42%

×Draw29%

Fovu Club29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PWD BamendaExpected goals in this matchFovu Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.98

PWD Bamenda

1.24

Fovu Club

0.98

PWD Bamenda creates 27% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 67 away

1.26

creates per match

1.06

0.89

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

PWD Bamenda

1.26

Fovu Club

1.06

allows per match

PWD Bamenda

0.89

Fovu Club

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Fovu Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw

71%

PWD Bamenda or Fovu Club

71%

Draw or Fovu Club

58%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+

19%

Fovu Club wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals

71%

PWD Bamenda 2+ goals

35%

PWD Bamenda 3+ goals

13%

Fovu Club 1+ goals

62%

Fovu Club 2+ goals

26%

Fovu Club 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)

59%

Fovu Club (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more

42%

level

29%

Fovu Club scores more

29%

PWD Bamenda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff