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PWD Bamenda vs Canon — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
FT
0 – 2
Canon
Canon
2/5/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 20Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

PWD Bamenda38%
×Draw30%
Canon33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.12
Canon
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 88 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Canon
1.18

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Canon
0.98

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Canon+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Canon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
67%
PWD Bamenda or Canon
70%
Draw or Canon
62%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
15%
Canon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
67%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
31%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
10%
Canon 1+ goals
64%
Canon 2+ goals
28%
Canon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
53%
Canon (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Canon away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.98 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Canon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.12

Canon attack 1.18 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
38%
level
30%
Canon scores more
33%

PWD Bamenda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PWD Bamenda vs Canon

Canon beat PWD Bamenda 2-0 in Elite One on February 5, 2020.

The match was played at Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda in Bamenda.