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PVV vs Notch — Eerste Divisie 2019

PVV
PVV
FT
4 – 0
Notch
Notch
3/4/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 1Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

PVV46%
×Draw23%
Notch31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PVV
1.78
Notch
1.41

PVV creates 26% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 58 away

creates per match

PVV
2.09
Notch
1.76

allows per match

PVV
1.05
Notch
1.48

finishing

PVV+0.00on par
Notch+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PVV ↓

Notch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

PVV or draw
69%
PVV or Notch
77%
Draw or Notch
54%

Winning margin

PVV wins by 2+
25%
Notch wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

PVV 1+ goals
83%
PVV 2+ goals
53%
PVV 3+ goals
26%
Notch 1+ goals
76%
Notch 2+ goals
41%
Notch 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

PVV (draw refunded)
60%
Notch (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PVV at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Notch away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PVV attack 2.09 + Notch defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Notch attack 1.76 + PVV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PVV scores more
46%
level
23%
Notch scores more
31%

PVV at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PVV vs Notch

PVV beat Notch 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 4, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.