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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
Preview
15:00
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
5/15/2027I LigaI Liga · Round 32
49%
Puszcza Niepołomice
model favours
49%26%25%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice49%
×Draw26%
Chrobry Głogów25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.54
Chrobry Głogów
1.02

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 51% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 41 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.50
Chrobry Głogów
0.98

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.05
Chrobry Głogów
1.59

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
75%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Chrobry Głogów
74%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
51%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
25%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
79%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
45%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
20%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
64%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
27%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
66%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.50 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chrobry Głogów attack 0.98 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
49%
level
26%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
25%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Chrobry Głogów win just 22% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Niepołomice
WLLL
Głogów
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puszcza Niepołomice face Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)

I Liga returns with Puszcza Niepołomice hosting Chrobry Głogów. Match starts May 15, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.