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Puntarenas FC vs Santa Ana — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
FT
1 – 2
Santa Ana
Santa Ana
8/19/2018Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 5Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy (Puntarenas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Puntarenas FC50%
×Draw24%
Santa Ana27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puntarenas FC
1.75
Santa Ana
1.22

Puntarenas FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 109 away

creates per match

Puntarenas FC
2.06
Santa Ana
1.42

allows per match

Puntarenas FC
1.02
Santa Ana
1.45

finishing

Puntarenas FC+0.00on par
Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puntarenas FC ↓

Santa Ana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Puntarenas FC or draw
73%
Puntarenas FC or Santa Ana
76%
Draw or Santa Ana
50%

Winning margin

Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
27%
Santa Ana wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
83%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
52%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
25%
Santa Ana 1+ goals
70%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
34%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
65%
Santa Ana (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puntarenas FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puntarenas FC attack 2.06 + Santa Ana defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.75

Santa Ana attack 1.42 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Puntarenas FC scores more
50%
level
24%
Santa Ana scores more
27%

Puntarenas FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Puntarenas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Puntarenas FC 1–2 Santa Ana

Santa Ana beat Puntarenas FC 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy (Puntarenas).