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Puntarenas FC vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
FT
1 – 1
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
9/9/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 1Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Puntarenas FC61%
×Draw21%
AS Puma Generalena18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puntarenas FC
2.00
AS Puma Generalena
0.97

Puntarenas FC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 74 away

creates per match

Puntarenas FC
2.06
AS Puma Generalena
0.92

allows per match

Puntarenas FC
1.02
AS Puma Generalena
1.93

finishing

Puntarenas FC+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puntarenas FC ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Puntarenas FC or draw
82%
Puntarenas FC or AS Puma Generalena
79%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
39%

Winning margin

Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
37%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
86%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
59%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
32%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
62%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
25%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
78%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puntarenas FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puntarenas FC attack 2.06 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Puntarenas FC scores more
61%
level
21%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
18%

Puntarenas FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Puntarenas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puntarenas FC 1 – 1 AS Puma Generalena

Puntarenas FC and AS Puma Generalena drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.