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Pumas Tabasco vs Atlante FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlante FC
Atlante FC
12/4/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Olímpico de Villahermosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pumas Tabasco27%
×Draw28%
Atlante FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pumas Tabasco
0.94
Atlante FC
1.28

Atlante FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 147 away

creates per match

Pumas Tabasco
0.78
Atlante FC
1.22

allows per match

Pumas Tabasco
1.34
Atlante FC
1.10

finishing

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par
Atlante FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pumas Tabasco ↓

Atlante FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pumas Tabasco or draw
56%
Pumas Tabasco or Atlante FC
72%
Draw or Atlante FC
73%

Winning margin

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
10%
Atlante FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
61%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
24%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
7%
Atlante FC 1+ goals
72%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
37%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
38%
Atlante FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pumas Tabasco at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Atlante FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pumas Tabasco attack 0.78 + Atlante FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Atlante FC attack 1.22 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pumas Tabasco scores more
27%
level
28%
Atlante FC scores more
44%

Atlante FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Pumas Tabasco 1–1 Atlante FC

Pumas Tabasco and Atlante FC drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on December 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa in Villahermosa.