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Puerto Quito vs Manta FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Puerto Quito
Puerto Quito
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Manta FC
Manta FC
7/28/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 24Estadio Olímpico Etho Vega Baquero (Santo Domingo de los Colorados)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Puerto Quito43%
×Draw29%
Manta FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Quito
1.21
Manta FC
0.92

Puerto Quito creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 104 away

creates per match

Puerto Quito
1.14
Manta FC
0.91

allows per match

Puerto Quito
0.93
Manta FC
1.27

finishing

Puerto Quito+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Quito ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Puerto Quito or draw
72%
Puerto Quito or Manta FC
71%
Draw or Manta FC
57%

Winning margin

Puerto Quito wins by 2+
19%
Manta FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Puerto Quito 1+ goals
70%
Puerto Quito 2+ goals
34%
Puerto Quito 3+ goals
12%
Manta FC 1+ goals
60%
Manta FC 2+ goals
23%
Manta FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Puerto Quito (draw refunded)
60%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Quito at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 85 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Quito attack 1.14 + Manta FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Manta FC attack 0.91 + Puerto Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Puerto Quito scores more
43%
level
29%
Manta FC scores more
28%

Puerto Quito at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Puerto Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puerto Quito vs Manta FC

Manta FC beat Puerto Quito 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Etho Vega Baquero (Santo Domingo de los Colorados).