Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Puebla vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
12/1/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Puebla33%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.19
Tigres UANL
1.36

Tigres UANL creates 14% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 157 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.26
Tigres UANL
1.25

allows per match

Puebla
1.47
Tigres UANL
1.13

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
59%
Puebla or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
67%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
14%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
70%
Puebla 2+ goals
33%
Puebla 3+ goals
12%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
74%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
39%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
45%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 140 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.26 + Tigres UANL defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tigres UANL attack 1.25 + Puebla defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Puebla scores more
33%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
41%

Tigres UANL at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Puebla 2–2 Tigres UANL

Puebla and Tigres UANL drew 2-2 in Liga MX on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtémoc in Puebla.