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Puebla vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
E. Gularte 55'
2/27/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Puebla40%
×Draw25%
Necaxa35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.49
Necaxa
1.36

Puebla creates 10% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 139 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.27
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Puebla
1.46
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
65%
Puebla or Necaxa
75%
Draw or Necaxa
60%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
20%
Necaxa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
77%
Puebla 2+ goals
44%
Puebla 3+ goals
19%
Necaxa 1+ goals
74%
Necaxa 2+ goals
39%
Necaxa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
54%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.46 · 139 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.27 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Puebla defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puebla scores more
40%
level
25%
Necaxa scores more
35%

Puebla at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
L. MalagónNecaxaNecaxa · G
8.9

Match Events

46'
F. Arce← D. Cabrera
46'
B. Carvallo← R. Sandoval
55'
Y. Leiva← A. Andrade
55'
E. Gularte↳ J. Segovia
65'
J. Rodríguez← A. Silva
69'
M. Salas← Ian González
69'
K. Mercado← J. Delgado
75'
D. Aguilar← A. Tabó
75'
D. Álvarez← M. Araújo
76'
Gustavo Ferrareis← O. Fernández
88'
A. Escoto← S. Ormeño
89'
J. Salas

Possession

53%Puebla

Shots

17Puebla

Pass accuracy

50%Puebla

Statistics

PueblaNecaxa
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots9
9Corners2
7Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots9
9On Target3
4Off Target4
4Blocked2
10Inside Box3
7Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
341Total Passes299
263Accurate Passes229
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves9
Discipline
7Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Puebla vs Necaxa

Puebla beat Necaxa 1-0 in Liga MX on February 27, 2021.

Goals: E. Gularte (55').

Puebla controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtémoc in Puebla.