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Puebla vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
L. Cavallini 43'
A. Tabó 35', 12'
11/23/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 19Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Puebla40%
×Draw25%
Necaxa35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.49
Necaxa
1.36

Puebla creates 10% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 139 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.27
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Puebla
1.46
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
65%
Puebla or Necaxa
75%
Draw or Necaxa
60%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
20%
Necaxa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
77%
Puebla 2+ goals
44%
Puebla 3+ goals
19%
Necaxa 1+ goals
74%
Necaxa 2+ goals
39%
Necaxa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
54%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.46 · 139 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.27 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Puebla defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puebla scores more
40%
level
25%
Necaxa scores more
35%

Puebla at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. TabóPueblaPuebla · F
8.8

Match Events

12'
A. Tabó↳ C. Marrugo
29'
Maximiliano Salas
31'
Pablo González
35'
A. Tabó↳ L. Cavallini
42'
Alejandro Chumacero
43'
L. Cavallini↳ A. Tabó
46'
J. Delgado← M. Salas
46'
R. Chávez← K. Mercado
53'
A. Acosta← A. Chumacero
69'
Jesus Zavala
73'
D. Abella← O. Fernández
81'
E. Herrera← C. Baeza
90+2'
E. García← A. Tabó

Possession

40%Puebla

Shots

10Puebla

Pass accuracy

46%Puebla

Statistics

PueblaNecaxa
Overview
40%Possession60%
10Total Shots14
4Corners7
13Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots14
6On Target2
3Off Target10
1Blocked2
8Inside Box11
2Outside Box3
Passing
40%Possession60%
288Total Passes417
204Accurate Passes346
71%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Puebla 3 – 0 Necaxa

Puebla beat Necaxa 3-0 in Liga MX on November 23, 2019.

Goals: A. Tabó (12', 35'), L. Cavallini (43').

Necaxa controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtémoc in Puebla.