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PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle — Eredivisie 2018

PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
11/12/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 12Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

PSV Eindhoven64%
×Draw20%
PEC Zwolle16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Eindhoven
2.17
PEC Zwolle
0.98

PSV Eindhoven creates 121% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 12 away

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven
2.54
PEC Zwolle
0.91

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven
1.04
PEC Zwolle
1.79

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.69scores more
PEC Zwolle+0.34scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

PEC Zwolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw
84%
PSV Eindhoven or PEC Zwolle
80%
Draw or PEC Zwolle
36%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
41%
PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
89%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
64%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
36%
PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
62%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
26%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
80%
PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.04 · 30 matches

PEC Zwolle away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.79 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.54 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.17

PEC Zwolle attack 0.91 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more
64%
level
20%
PEC Zwolle scores more
16%

PSV Eindhoven at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle

PSV Eindhoven beat PEC Zwolle 4-0 in Eredivisie on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven.