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PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen — Eredivisie 2018

PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
12/7/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 15Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

PSV Eindhoven61%
×Draw20%
Heerenveen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Eindhoven
2.19
Heerenveen
1.15

PSV Eindhoven creates 90% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 19 away

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven
2.54
Heerenveen
1.25

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven
1.04
Heerenveen
1.84

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.69scores more
Heerenveen-0.14scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

Heerenveen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw
81%
PSV Eindhoven or Heerenveen
80%
Draw or Heerenveen
39%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
38%
Heerenveen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
89%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
64%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
37%
Heerenveen 1+ goals
68%
Heerenveen 2+ goals
32%
Heerenveen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
76%
Heerenveen (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.04 · 30 matches

Heerenveen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.54 + Heerenveen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.19

Heerenveen attack 1.25 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more
61%
level
20%
Heerenveen scores more
19%

PSV Eindhoven at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen

PSV Eindhoven beat Heerenveen 2-0 in Eredivisie on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven.