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PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord — Eredivisie 2018

PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Feyenoord
Feyenoord
3/3/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 24Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

PSV Eindhoven44%
×Draw22%
Feyenoord34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Eindhoven
1.87
Feyenoord
1.63

PSV Eindhoven creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven
2.54
Feyenoord
2.22

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven
1.04
Feyenoord
1.20

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.69scores more
Feyenoord-0.29scores less

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

Feyenoord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw
66%
PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord
78%
Draw or Feyenoord
56%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
24%
Feyenoord wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
85%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
56%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
29%
Feyenoord 1+ goals
80%
Feyenoord 2+ goals
48%
Feyenoord 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
56%
Feyenoord (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.04 · 30 matches

Feyenoord away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.54 + Feyenoord defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.87

Feyenoord attack 2.22 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more
44%
level
22%
Feyenoord scores more
34%

PSV Eindhoven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord

PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord drew 2-2 in Eredivisie on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven.