Kristianstad 3–0 Utsikten: Result & Stats

Kristianstad

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Utsikten

A. Grahm 71'

E. Izuchukwu 67'

N. Netabay 46'

10/1/2016

Ettan - Södra · Round 21Kristianstads IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kristianstad35%

×Draw24%

Utsikten41%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KristianstadExpected goals in this matchUtsikten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.58

Kristianstad

1.45

Utsikten

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 56 away

1.20

creates per match

1.41

1.76

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Kristianstad

1.20

Utsikten

1.41

allows per match

Kristianstad

1.76

Utsikten

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristianstad+0.00on par

Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad ↓

Utsikten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kristianstad or draw

59%

Kristianstad or Utsikten

76%

Draw or Utsikten

65%

Winning margin

Kristianstad wins by 2+

16%

Utsikten wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kristianstad 1+ goals

77%

Kristianstad 2+ goals

42%

Kristianstad 3+ goals

18%

Utsikten 1+ goals

79%

Utsikten 2+ goals

47%

Utsikten 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad (draw refunded)

46%

Utsikten (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.70 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad attack 1.20 + Utsikten defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Utsikten attack 1.41 + Kristianstad defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kristianstad scores more

35%

level

24%

Utsikten scores more

41%

Utsikten at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Netabay

53'

N. Sandberg← M. Evensen

60'

D. Tidstrand← A. Eriksson

67'

E. Izuchukwu

71'

A. Grahm

74'

M. Johansson-Zanjanchi← E. Jonasson-Westermark

82'

G. Stagova← A. Grahm

82'

A. Kamp← N. Jönsson

Kristianstad

Utsikten

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Grahm

⚽

Izuchukwu

Rindmo

Manager: Joakim Persson

82'▲G. Stagova←▼A. Grahm

82'▲A. Kamp←▼N. Jönsson

Kristianstad substitutes

StagovaKampSeljmaniEkströmBaggnerRundqvistDampha

Manager: H. Sandberg

53'▲N. Sandberg←▼M. Evensen

60'▲D. Tidstrand←▼A. Eriksson

74'▲M. Johansson-Zanjanchi←▼E. Jonasson-Westermark

Utsikten substitutes

SandbergTidstrandJohansson-ZanjanchiBarthGanningWallénSjöberg