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Proleter Novi SAD vs Radnik Surdulica — Super Liga 2018

Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
2/16/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 22Stadion Karađorđe (Novi Sad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD43%
×Draw29%
Radnik Surdulica29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Proleter Novi SAD
1.26
Radnik Surdulica
0.97

Proleter Novi SAD creates 30% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 128 away

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.04
Radnik Surdulica
0.92

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.01
Radnik Surdulica
1.48

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par
Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw
71%
Proleter Novi SAD or Radnik Surdulica
71%
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
57%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
19%
Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
72%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
36%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
13%
Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
62%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
25%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
60%
Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.04 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.26

Radnik Surdulica attack 0.92 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more
43%
level
29%
Radnik Surdulica scores more
29%

Proleter Novi SAD at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Proleter Novi SAD vs Radnik Surdulica

Proleter Novi SAD and Radnik Surdulica drew 0-0 in Super Liga on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe (Novi Sad).