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Proleter Novi SAD vs RAD — Super Liga 2018

Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RAD
RAD
3/14/2020Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 26Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD51%
×Draw28%
RAD21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Proleter Novi SAD
1.38
RAD
0.78

Proleter Novi SAD creates 77% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 53 away

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.04
RAD
0.55

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.01
RAD
1.72

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw
79%
Proleter Novi SAD or RAD
72%
Draw or RAD
49%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
25%
RAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
75%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
40%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
16%
RAD 1+ goals
54%
RAD 2+ goals
18%
RAD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
71%
RAD (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

RAD away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.04 + RAD defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.38

RAD attack 0.55 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more
51%
level
28%
RAD scores more
21%

Proleter Novi SAD at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Proleter Novi SAD 5–0 RAD

Proleter Novi SAD beat RAD 5-0 in Super Liga on March 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.