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Proleter Novi SAD vs Napredak — Super Liga 2018

Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Napredak
Napredak
9/29/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 10Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD46%
×Draw28%
Napredak26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Proleter Novi SAD
1.35
Napredak
0.93

Proleter Novi SAD creates 45% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 147 away

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.04
Napredak
0.84

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.01
Napredak
1.66

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par
Napredak+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

Napredak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw
74%
Proleter Novi SAD or Napredak
72%
Draw or Napredak
54%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
22%
Napredak wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
74%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
39%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
15%
Napredak 1+ goals
61%
Napredak 2+ goals
24%
Napredak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
64%
Napredak (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

Napredak away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.04 + Napredak defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Napredak attack 0.84 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more
46%
level
28%
Napredak scores more
26%

Proleter Novi SAD at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Proleter Novi SAD 2–0 Napredak

Proleter Novi SAD beat Napredak 2-0 in Super Liga on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.